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UNH National Security Interests in the Diaoyu Senkaku Islands NSC Policy MEMO

 

The handout is here materials are on Model Diplomacy website https://modeldiplomacy.cfr.org/node/57696Links to an external site. make sure your policy memo is in the correct format (format is worth 5 points of the 25 points – see Model Diplomacy site for model of a policy brief or find a download) see also the sample on the Model Diplomacy website under ROLE PLAY. ROLE ASSIGNMENTS ARE LIST BELOW.

You are writing a memo from the perspective of the Head of the Agency you represent, so Sec.of State recommendations will be different from the Attorney General.

THE ISSUE: (FROM MODEL DIPLOMACY WEBSITE) Tensions between China and Japan have erupted in the East China Sea(ECS) over five small, uninhabited islands referred to by Japanese as the Senkaku Islands and by Chinese as the Diaoyu Islands. These islands have been the subject of competing claims of sovereignty by Japan, China, and Taiwan for decades. However, for the past several years, Japanese and Chinese maritime and air forces have come in frequent contact as Beijing and Tokyo seek to demonstrate their control over the islands. In contrast, Taiwan negotiated a fisheries agreement with Japan that was signed in 2015 and has proposed an East China Sea Peace Initiative to resolve regional differences.

Domestic opinion in China and Japan remains sensitive to the issue of the islands’ sovereignty, and—given that militaries are increasingly in contact in the waters of the East China Sea and the airspace above it—the risk of a miscalculation or accident has risen. The concern is that this dispute could lead to an armed clash between Asia’s two largest powers.

The United States needs to assess ways in which this dispute might affect its national security interests. Of particular relevance is the question of how U.S. allies, as well as governments and nonstate actors that want to do the United States harm, would perceive various U.S. responses to the crisis. The long-standing U.S. policy of neutrality on the islands’ sovereignty and the price the United States would be willing to pay to fulfill its treaty commitment to Japan’s defense should be examined in light of recent events. Such an examination is particularly important given the potential effects that a change in U.S. policy or a U.S. intervention might have on other pressing interests that require the cooperation of China or Japan. These interests include nuclear nonproliferation, global economic growth, measures to combat climate change, and the safety of Americans abroad.

Decision Point: Japanese and Chinese aircraft have exchanged fire over the East China Sea. At least one aircraft seems to be disabled. The interaction took place in China’s newly declared Air Defense Identification Zone. (ADIZ), into which Beijing had demanded all aircraft give it prior notification of entry. Japan, too, has an ADIZ, and both of these air defense zones include the disputed islands. Japan does not recognize China’s ADIZ, and continues to send civilian and military aircraft into the ECS airspace, claiming it is acting legitimately under international law. In response to the exchange of fire, Japan and China have each begun preparations for a search and rescue mission, and additional naval vessels are being sent to the area where the aircraft were last observed. Japan’s parliament has convened a special session, and calls for U.S. action are being reported in the Japanese media. Japan’s prime minister has asked for a telephone conversation with the U.S. president. The President has convened a National Security Council meeting to consider any action it should take to ease tensions in the East China Sea and to evaluate its long-term policy in the region.

My role for the simulation will be General Advisor to the President